Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Advisor on Economic Reforms, Aleś Alachnovič, discussed the economic policies of the Lukashenka regime, their consequences for the country, and potential changes after the 2025 sham election in an interview with Nasha Niva.
Below are the key takeaways from the interview.
- What will change in Lukashenka’s economic policies after the sham election?
“Maintaining control over the economy is more important to Lukashenka than allowing people and businesses to thrive. There are no signs of potential economic liberalization after the election. We can expect the policies from the last four years to continue, including repression against private businesses, ban on selling shares of 1,850 companies with foreign capital, and artificial price controls”.
- What does the future hold for businesses in Belarus?
“Next year will mark the end for approximately 10 percent of businesses in Belarus. These businesses will have to either register as legal entities or shut down. Over the past few years, the conditions for small businesses have systematically worsened, with increased taxes, revoked incentives, and reduced list of permissible activities for individual entrepreneurs. Authorities will likely continue implementing their preplanned restrictions”.
- Are there prospects for economic growth in Belarus?
“Under the current political regime, Belarus faces prolonged stagnation. This isn’t about economic sanctions but about the environment created by the government. In the second quarter of 2014, the average gross salary in Belarus was $600. By early 2020 – before COVID, the election, mass repression, the war, and the emigration of about half a million Belarusians – the average salary barely exceeded $500, less than in 2013-2014. Even then, it was clear that Belarus’ economy wasn’t delivering growth. The events of the last couple of years have only reinforced this conclusion”.
