The Analytical Center of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's Office holds weekly expert discussions in the online format with international experts on Belarus’ pressing matter. On September 2, 2021, we discussed the topic “Referendum in Belarus: who needs it and why?”.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Special Representative on Elections Alexander Shlyk, Director of the Institute of Political Studies “Palitychnaya Sfera” (Political Sphere) Andrei Kazakevich, Director of Center for New Ideas Anton Radniankou, the National Anti-Crisis Management representative on justice issues Mikhail Kirilyuk took part in the event, with Advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Alexander Dabravolski as a moderator.
The Referendum on the Constitution is likely to be the next nationwide political campaign in Belarus. Lukashenka’s administration preliminary scheduled it for February 2022 and uses referendum in their discourse as a tool to improve the political system and make it more sustainable. The Kremlin strongly supported this idea, considering Lukashenka’s changes to the Consitution as a viable political alternative to new elections in Belarus. The new official draft Constitution is expected to be publicly presented this fall. The main proclaimed political outcome of the referendum should be a political reform with the redistribution of power among the branches of the government. However, it is feared that the regime will use constitutional amendments to preserve the current political system with just minor changes.
The experts came to the next conclusions:
- Lukashenka’s constitutional reform is not a solution for the ongoing crisis which started due to the fraudulent presidential election. The only way to solve the current crisis is through a new presidential election in Belarus.
- Currently, there are no preconditions to have this referendum as a democratic process because there are political prisoners in the country, the fundamental rights (freedom of expression and the right to peaceful assembly) are not respected, and no conditions for a transparent voting process are provided.
- The referendum may be the next nationwide political campaign, and it can be used for political outreach. However, the repressive environment (many independent media and non-governmental organizations were shut down, thousands of people left the country, including many activists) creates serious limitations. Any electoral event is, by default, a mobilizing event. Informing and communicating should be the priority.
- The campaign should be used to improve the image of the Belarusian democratic movement and broaden its popular support. Even if there won't be a possibility to engage people in any actions, campaigning for popular support should be the primary target for the democratic movement.
- The Belarusian democratic movement and its’ leaders should propose a clear alternative vision of political reform and vision of Belarus after Lukashenka is gone. It's not easy to do amid repressions, but alternatives are in great demand.
- The democratic forces are developing an alternative draft Constitution that should secure power separation and sustainable democratic development. The very process of drafting is an inclusive one, and all Belarusians could propose their ideas. The pro-democracy Civil Constitution Commission has received more than 1500 propositions and comments and has begun work with them.
- The referendum is a challenge for the Belarusian authorities themselves, while it's the first political campaign since the 2020 presidential election. Neither the people of Belarus, nor the international community recognized it as transparent, free and fair election. Also, the system became more centralized, and it is unclear how any political reform can be implemented under Lukashenka illegitimate government.
For questions about the discussion, contact analyticalcenter@tsikhanouskaya.org.
For the OST position on the referendum, contact Alexander Shlyk, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Special Representative on Elections, elections@tsikhanouskaya.org.
