Today, December 3, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya declared her readiness to lead Belarus in the transition period. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's adviser Alexander Dabravolski presented possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Belarus and Tsikhanouskaya's role in them.
Belarus is in an acute political crisis. The country's former president, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, lost the elections but decided to cling on to power by falsifying the voting results. According to numerous testimonies, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya won the election, and the majority of the citizens of Belarus have no doubts about this.
Soon after the elections, mass protests and demonstrations began, which have been going on for almost four months. The protesters demand the end of repressions, the release of political prisoners, and new free and fair elections. The overwhelming majority of the international community did not recognize Lukashenka as the elected president. In contrast, the world's leading countries actually recognize Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as the winner of the elections, giving her the right to speak at high-level meetings.
The current political crisis does not suit either those holding power or protesters. A shared interest in getting out of the political crisis could help start negotiations on holding new elections, but this is not happening yet. From the very beginning, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya proposed negotiations and initiated the Coordination Council for this. Aliaksandr Lukashenka refuses to negotiate with the Coordination Council and persecutes its members. As an alternative to negotiations, Lukashenka proposes constitutional reform in an indefinite period; the draft amendment to the Constitution has also not been presented to the public. Protesters perceive this as a deception and an attempt to stall for time. The country is undergoing massive repressions against protesters.
In this situation, events can develop according to several scenarios:
1. New elections as a result of negotiations.
Option 1.1. Lukashenka decides to accept negotiations. He appoints a negotiating group. A negotiating group set by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya participates in negotiations on the part of the protesters. The group cooperates with the Coordination Council.
Option 1.2. A group of people representing the interests of the former government decides to enter into negotiations. They form a negotiating group. A negotiating group set by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya participates in negotiations on the part of the protesters. The group cooperates with the Coordination Council. The negotiations subject is the holding of new elections and a course of action for the transition period. It is possible to discuss the sequence of actions before the assumption of office of newly elected authorities. Negotiation topics:
- Who conducts elections, how are election commissions formed?
- In what order should elections for different authorities be held (presidential, parliamentary, local)?
- Under what legislation elections are held?
- How is the new Constitution agreed and adopted?
- How is the governance of the country ensured in the period before the assumption of office of newly elected authorities?
- How is the stability of the economy ensured during the transition period? How is compliance with negotiated agreements ensured?
- What guarantees are given to representatives of the former government in exchange for the release of political prisoners, refusal to use violence and consent to fulfill the negotiated agreements?
2. New elections as a result of the fact that the presidency becomes vacant.
Option 2.1. The former president leaves the country.
Option 2.2. The former president resigns. A possible consequence is moving to option 1.1.
Option 2.3. The former president is arrested.
Possible actions:
1. A round table to decide on the procedure for holding elections. The round table is attended by representatives of the government on the one hand and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the Coordination Council on the other. A possible consequence is moving to option 1.2.
2. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya becomes the Acting President and organizes elections. At the same time, the issues from scenario 1 must be resolved.
3. Toughening of the regime, new waves of repressions, the possible introduction of a state of emergency or martial law.
The former president adopts a decree on a state of emergency or martial law. A curfew is imposed on the part of the country's territory, borders closed, movement across the country is limited, tens of thousands of people are imprisoned, the opposition movement goes underground. The Resistance Movement is being formed.
Outcome: Lukashenka remains in power for a certain period, but the lack of his legitimacy and the lack of resources for the regime's existence shorten this period. The scenario becomes unstable. There is a tendency for it to move into scenario 1 or 2.
The massive external financial support of the regime, which can only come from Russia, can increase stability, albeit not for an extended period. Such support will be a severe problem to Russia. Sanctions against the authorities of Belarus and Russia will be tightened. The scenario will tend to move into scenario 1 or 2.
4. Lukashenka attempts to drag out the promise of constitutional reform, hoping that the protests will fade away.
All Belarusian People's Assembly (which is an unconstitutional body) is being held. It adopts a draft amendment to the Constitution (most likely, without specific content and specific deadlines for implementation). Despite the possible dragging out of time, Lukashenka remains illegitimate. He cannot rely on public support. The government crisis and the economic crisis intensifies. Protest actions continue, taking on new forms. New social resistance structures grow and strengthen, from independent trade unions to local initiatives.
The announcement of new presidential elections in the spring of 2021 could soften the situation and weaken the protests, but Lukashenka is unlikely to do so. The dragging out of the current uncertain situation cannot go on forever. If there are no signs of change, a worsening of the crisis is possible at any moment. It is doubtful that it will be able to keep the presidency until spring 2021. The probability of holding out until the fall is close to zero. This scenario is unstable and will tend to move into scenario 1, 2, or 3 (which is also unstable).
5. Introduction of Russian troops and police units to Belarus.
Option 5.1. Incorporation of Belarus into Russia. In this case, Russia has enough resources to maintain the regime for quite a long time. Still, sanctions, heavy pressure on the economy and civil unrest will lead to instability in Russia.
Option 5.2. There will be no incorporation. In this case, the consequences are close to option 5.1. Russia introduces troops and police units, referring to the obligations under the CSTO and/or the request of Belarusian authorities. Lukashenka is either removed from office or deprived of real power.
There is a split among security forces. The Resistance Movement is being formed. Mass protests and armed confrontations begin. Severe sanctions are being introduced against the leadership of Belarus and Russia. There is a threat of disconnection from SWIFT. Unrest breaks out in Russia. Russia has sufficient resources to maintain the situation for several years. However, the situation is becoming unstable. There are tendencies for the scenario to move into scenario 1 or 2. At the same time, public sentiment leads to the emergence of a massive anti-Russian movement. Relations with Russia are hopelessly ruined.
6. Nomenclature or military coup. Removal of Lukashenka from power.
Option 6.1. Nomenclature coup. A group of high-ranking officials removes Lukashenka from power. Outcome: moving into scenario 2.
Option 6.2. Military coup. Security forces take control of the situation, neutralize repressive units and remove Lukashenka from power. Outcome: 1. moving into scenario 2. 2. A period of martial law, then moving into scenario 2.
Analysis of the above scenarios shows that only two of them are stable and can have long-lasting consequences. These are scenarios 1 and 2. The result of the implementation of these scenarios is the resolution of the principal contradiction (the people of Belarus refused to trust Lukashenka and demand his resignation, but Lukashenka refuses to leave). The announcement of new elections will reorient public attention to the election campaign; the reason for protests will disappear. If society perceives the new elections as free and fair, it will create conditions for the development of the country without severe internal conflicts for at least several years. If the elections are rigged again, the situation in the country will remain unstable.
Scenarios 3, 4, 5, and 6 are unstable for several reasons. One of the reasons is that the government will remain illegitimate and will not have public support. The second reason is that maintaining minimal stability will require too many resources, which the current government will not have enough for a long time. If Russia intervenes, there will be more resources, but they are not endless either. Moreover, the destabilization of the situation in Russia itself is inevitable. The third reason is the inevitable economic crisis due to internal (civil resistance) and external reasons (sanctions, international isolation). For these and other reasons, scenarios 3, 4, 5, and 6 will tend to move into scenarios 1 and 2.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's office has developed a concept for the new elections and a draft of constitutional reform to be carried out after Lukashenka's removal. Both projects will be published shortly.
