“Dear friends,
Let me welcome all of you at our side event. It’s crucial to keep Belarus in focus.
I wish to have good news for you, but the situation in Belarus is getting worse, especially with political prisoners. Just yesterday, we heard horrible news about the death of another political prisoner – Ales Pushkin. He is another innocent victim of Lukashenka’s regime. Ales was a famous Belarusian artist, performer, true patriot, and by the way, an active advocate of Belarus membership in NATO.
Today, we will discuss the Deployment of Nuclear Weapons in Belarus and its Implications for Regional Security. In this discussion, I will be joined by excellent speakers including former US Deputy Secretary Biegun, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center Ambassador Herbst, Chairman of Munich Security Conference Ambassador Heusgen.
The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is not just an internal issue, but a threat to global security.
Unfortunately, the response of the international community to this threat is insufficient. We saw some statements and mentions, but we did not see any clear strategy on how to counter this threat.
The deployment of nuclear weapons also undermines our national sovereignty. So far, the Belarusian perspective has not been reflected in official statements of our partners.
We, Belarusians, are survivors of the Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe. From all the countries affected by the tragedy, Belarus suffered the most. Even more importantly, after many centuries of wars devastating our land, Belarusians value peace and want to contribute to strong security commitments.
Those were the reasons why, in the Declaration of State Sovereignty in 1990, Belarus was declared a non-nuclear state. Later on, Belarus gave up its share of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. This decision was further locked in by joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty and included in the Constitution of 1994.
That was before Lukashenka came to power. Since then he repeatedly expressed regrets about that decision. Today, we see these agreements broken while Russia actively uses the dictator as an instrument for its own interests.
In March, Putin announced his decision to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. It goes against the will of the Belarusian people and our Constitution. Its 2022 version, in which the non-nuclear clause is dropped, was adopted in violation of all standards and has not been recognized.
Also, Russia violates the Budapest memorandum on security assurances twice. First, by taking away Belarusian non-nuclear status. And second, by attacking Belarus’ sovereignty.
Important to note that the Budapest memorandum offered Belarus security assurances based on the condition to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory.
The way how the decision about deployment of nuclear weapon was announced showed that Belarus is treated by Russia as its colony. Lukashenka, who poses himself as the ruler of Belarus, was not even informed of Putin’s intention.
Putin cynically announced his decision on March 25, Belarusian independence day, as if to stress Belarus' colonial status.
The question of who will have the “red button” to Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus remains open. Lukashenka insists that Russia would let him have a say in the decision to use these nuclear weapons. But to Belarusians both options are unacceptable.
Lukashenka was always eager to get nuclear weapons to safeguard his power. He recently said that he wouldn’t hesitate to use these weapons immediately in case Belarus – that is, his regime – was attacked. But we have to remember that even the peaceful manifestations in 2020 he interpreted as an attack, operated from abroad, and he never hesitated to apply disproportionate force.
In the situation of Russia's war against Ukraine, Russia needs nuclear weapons in Belarus to escalate the situation, to threaten Ukraine from the north and force it into peace talks on Russian terms. It aims to blackmail Ukraine and its allies, but also to create new conditions to strengthen control over Belarus.
All this development goes on without even a conversation with Belarusians. Lukashenka himself said that he won’t ask the society’s opinion in wartime. In the situation of terror, any open protest against Russian military presence in Belarus is practically impossible.
The truth is that Belarusians are strongly against the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to a May survey, only 20% of Belarusians support this idea. However, the regime is not interested to hear that.
Until now, the Western countries’ reaction to Putin’s decision can be described as “Let's wait and see”. It’s true that we don't know whether nuclear weapons are in Belarus yet. It has been declared that they'll be there by the end of the year.
What is missing in our partners’ approach is taking into account the Belarusian perspective. They are mostly concerned with non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and rightly so. But what does this possible deployment mean for Belarusian sovereignty and security?
The consequences of this deployment may be very dire for Belarus.
- First, it will make Belarus a potential target for retaliation.
- Second, it will allow Russia to further develop its military presence in Belarus. Until one day it can become the second Crimea. There Russians had military bases that they used lately to occupy the whole peninsula.
- The third possibility is that these nuclear weapons can be used as a Trojan horse. That is Russia can send troops for protection of its nuclear weapons on false pretext, but in fact to take control over the country.
In short, this Putin's decision, confirmed by Lukashenka, is very dangerous for Belarusian sovereignty.
The question is what our western allies, the NATO countries, should do in this situation.
In case the nuclear weapons are not there yet, we have to try to prevent their deployment by diplomatic means. And if we can't do it, let's make it extremely costly for Russia.
There must be a package of severe sanctions introduced against both Lukashenka's regime and Putin's Russia.
In exchange for lifting at least part of these sanctions, we should demand from Russia to immediately withdraw nuclear weapons from Belarus.
It's also very important to give Russia a warning: in case that nuclear weapons are used from the Belarusian territory, the retaliation strike will come not at Belarus, but at the facilities where the nuclear weapons are controlled from. It can be an important deterring factor.
To deal with this situation, the UN Security Council meeting has to be called. Belarus must take part in it.
But Belarusian interests can't be represented by the illegitimate dictator. He serves Russian political interests, not Belarusian. The interests of Belarusian people should be represented by the democratic forces.
There should also be a debate at the UN General Assembly, to discuss a situation when one hostile country is overtaking another and undermines the global order.
Now we all can finally see Belarus' importance for regional and European security. We repeated many times that Lukashenka’s regime is a threat to the whole region. With nuclear weapons and possible presence of the Wagner terrorist group in Belarus, the regime is turning into a global threat.
On the contrary, when Belarus becomes an independent democratic country, it will be a reliable partner and donor of security for the region. But it is possible only in case that Belarus defeats tyranny and eliminates hostile Russian control.
Dear friends,
We are facing a very dangerous enemy: the Russian empire. But we have Belarusian people on our side.With our tragic historic experience, we Belarusians know the true value of peace. It's all we can possibly want.
But we also know that there can be no peaceful coexistence with tyranny. Peace without freedom is slavery, not peace.
We hope that, together with Ukrainians, we will gain our freedom and get rid of Russian claws as a result of this war. No weapon can kill our desire to be free.
Thank you”.
