“Thank you, Prof. Ekiert, for your kind introduction.
President Metsola, thank you for your inspiring speech. It’s an honor to see you today as always.
I see here eager undergraduates, tired mid-career students — seeking refuge from the bureaucracy of the German Finance Ministry, French Presidency, or State Department. Gosh, how much I wish I could become a student myself! Maybe, at some point, you’ll accept me.
For now, I would like to share some lessons from the three years of running a revolution in Belarus, a medium-sized Eastern European country and convincing the West to support us.
I am here to tell you how we came here, the biggest war in Europe since World War Two. And how you can take part in the changes this war will bring to Europe. These changes will redefine Europe and the transatlantic relationship in the coming decade.
The biggest change is driven by two forces.
On the one hand, the desire of Eastern Europeans to live freely and safely.
On the other hand, the fall of Russian imperialism.
In the last century, Europe has been redefined two times.
First, when the EU emerged after World War Two.
Second, when it expanded after the fall of the Eastern Bloc, and Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and others joined the EU.
And the third is happening now. I believe it will result in a stronger, more united broader Europe, with Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and others in it.
However, this vision is only possible if people like yourself, about to go back to the German Finance Ministry, French Presidency or State Department help us execute it.
In the summer of 2020, I saw this desire for freedom in the eyes of my husband — when he announced, in a kitchen conversation, to challenge the brutal dictator Lukashenka who ruled the country for 26 years.
When he was jailed I stepped in for him to run for Belarusian presidency. I saw the desire for freedom on the streets filled with hundreds of thousands of Belarusians who came to peaceful protests to support me. These protests were brutally cracked down, but they did not suppress the people’s thirst for changes.
Now I see the same desire for freedom in Ukrainians defending against the unjust and bloody invasion. Same with Georgians protesting against Russian-supported legislation and Moldovans rallying around Maya Sandu. Even in Kazakhstan distancing itself from Russia.
We saw it before in Poland, Czech Republic, and the Baltics. Those European countries managed to escape the Russian orbit in the 1990s. It took them a while: Prof Ekiert can confirm this. It took 10 years, full of repression, since the founding of Solidarnosc to fight against Soviet rule until the first democratic presidential election in Poland.
And even after gaining freedom, nobody would believe that in 30 years, Poland would be a member of the EU and a key member of the Transatlantic Alliance.
In Belarus in 2020, we thought we could do the same as Poland but faster.
Our mistake was to underestimate the growing Russian revanchism. We thought we could snatch freedom and then tell Putin: deal with it!
I remember my first meeting with President Macron in September 2020, at the top of our protests, and Chancellor Merkel the next month.
The first question was: “Yes, yes, you have a very honorable desire for freedom. But what about Russia?” I used to say, “Forget about Russia! We’re a separate country”. Perhaps, we were too idealistic.
And then, when we were meeting with one European Foreign Minister and my adviser outlined our plan of snatching freedom under the Russian nose, he responded, a tall respectable man with graying hair and a deep-deep voice:
“That’s an amazing plan! I am only surprised that you consider it …possible”.
Western politicians did not believe that Russia could be weakened. Many of them preferred the status quo, and did not want to provoke Russia. Partly, it caused such a delayed and weak response to the Belarus uprising.
Now — the context has changed. Russia launched an unjust and faltering invasion against Ukraine.
No matter how the war ends, Russia will come out weak out of it: militarily, economically, politically, and with no allies.
And this provides us with the unique historical opportunity: to get Belarus out of the Russian orbit.
There was no better way to convince Belarusians of the benefits of Europe, then Russia launching a despicable war against our friend.
Since 2020, pro-European moods have grown within Belarusian society. Belarusians see that Europe means peace, and safety, while Russia means war and poverty.
86% of Belarusians do not support Belarusian military engagement in the war. More than 80 acts of sabotage took place on the railways. Last month, our partisans damaged a 300 million dollar Russian plane. And they still conduct underground protests — the regime has to arrest dozens of people daily.
The regime feels insecure and has to constantly increase repressions. Only last year, more than 5000 criminal cases were opened for political reasons. These repressions targeted not only activists, journalists, or human rights defenders, but also officials and military.
Even those, who were on the side of the regime through many years, don’t see any future with this regime or Russia, and they are also looking for changes.
This new reality provides us with opportunities but also creates new risks. And I see two polar scenarios how the situation might develop:
First scenario, in which a democratized and stable Eastern Europe becomes a donor of security. It resists Russian imperialism AND becomes an example for Russia to democratize. In this ”good” scenario, the EU is strong, self-sufficient and serves as a powerful ally to the US.
In the second “bad” scenario, Belarus is completely swallowed by Russia, Ukraine is a rump state bleeding resources. While Russia becomes a client-state of China. In this scenario, Europe becomes insecure and depends on American defense.
That’s why in my meeting with Harvard professors an hour ago, I suggested the idea of launching an Eastern Europe Working Group at Harvard. The key question is how to bring about the first scenario and prevent the second.
I believe in you. You did it before! The Marshall Plan was announced here — in a speech at Harvard. The memos that defined that 1990s came from the Kennedy School.
When my husband's 18 year jail term was announced, I am sure he asked himself: “What for?”.
My beloved Sergei, when you get a chance to watch a recording of this, I want you to know that when you told me you were running for Presidency — you were a messenger of a historical change for the benefit of all Europeans and the world.
This sparkle of freedom that lit up my husband’s eyes back then got carried over to thousands and now millions.
To those sitting here, I wish to share some of this sparkle with you.
And I hope this place will give you the skills and knowledge to bring our common ideals into reality.
In the long-term Harvard could launch a Belarus-focused academic program: invite Belarusian scholars, conduct country-specific research and teach classes about Belarus the same way you do about Ukraine.
In the medium-term and short-term, as I said, Harvard should lead the development of a vision for a post-war European architecture by launching a Working Group on Eastern Europe. Same way you contributed to European peace and prosperity after WW2 and the fall of the USSR.
You, students, are crucial — your interest and activism brings speakers to campus, changes academic programs. I want you to focus on human rights and Europe. Write your thesis project on Ukraine. Attend a rally in support of Belarus and Ukraine. Simply ask your professor in international relations class a question on Eastern Europe. It all helps.
Thank you.”
