Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya presented the Red Paper in The Hague today. The document contains crucial and up-to-date information on Belarus’ security – energy, information, economic, military, migration, and youth-related. Systematized by experts, this data helps identify the risks Belarus faces today and what they mean for the country’s future. Below are the key findings from the Red Paper.
- Energy Security
What do we observe and highlight?
Belarus’ energy sector is completely dependent on Russia.
Key findings:
- Belarus produces more energy than it needs but lacks the ability to manage it. A second nuclear power plant is under construction, despite an energy surplus and growing risks associated with nuclear power.
- Green energy development is effectively frozen. A ban on new solar and wind stations was in place from 2021 (lifted in 2025, but construction remains heavily restricted).
- Money is spent on subsidies instead of investment. State subsidies cover up to 80% of heating costs – this is expensive, and new technologies remain unsupported.
- There are staff shortages due to ideological control, lack of incentives, and educational decline.
- Professional and academic exchanges with the West are significantly reduced, with a trend toward complete isolation.
Why this matters for Belarusians:
Belarus could serve as an energy bridge between Ukraine and the Baltic region, supplying biomass and green electricity. Instead, the country is trapped in isolation, dependent on Russian oil and gas, and fails to develop its own potential. This undermines both ecology and economy, and increases vulnerability to Kremlin blackmail.
- Information Security
What do we observe and highlight?
Belarus is a source of hybrid threats through propaganda, censorship, and cyberattacks.
Key findings:
- The regime has built a centralized propaganda machine: Lukashenka’s press office, the KGB, telecom operators, ideological institutions, and state media. Access to information is restricted, including through internet shutdowns.
- The regime coordinates its messaging with the Kremlin.
- Key propaganda narratives are that NATO and the EU are threats, the opposition are “terrorists,” and Russia is the “guarantor of sovereignty.”
- The line between the regime and state institutions is blurred, complicating EU responses to violations.
Why this matters for Belarusians:
Information isolation turns Belarusians into hostages of propaganda. Without access to alternative sources, they become vulnerable to manipulation. This weakens the country’s democratic potential and hinders dialogue with the EU.
- Economic Security
What do we observe and highlight?
Economic stagnation and crisis are deepening Belarus’ dependence on Russia and eroding national institutions.
Key findings:
- GDP growth is about 0.6% annually, one of the lowest in the region.
- The entire system of state management is subordinated to politics, with no independence for the National Bank.
- The financial sector is underdeveloped: people don’t trust the Belarusian ruble and save in dollars. This hampers banking development, investment, and a stable economy.
- Market access is limited.
- 60% of foreign trade is with Russia; imports are mostly raw materials and energy.
- There are high levels of Western technology and capital bans.
- Brain drain is observed: over 300,000 people have left, including key professionals in IT and healthcare.
- The economic model is not being modernized. It is reinforcing Belarus’ dependence on Russia.
Why this matters for Belarusians:
The regime has abdicated responsibility for modernization. Instead of reform and diversification, it is reinforcing a dead-end dependency on Moscow, a path that risks Belarus’s sovereignty.
- Migration Security
What do we observe and highlight?
Migrants are used as a tool to pressure the EU.
Key findings:
- Lukashenka deliberately provoked the 2021 migration crisis by bringing in migrants and directing them to the EU border.
- In coordination with the FSB, the regime developed the “Operation Fortress” scheme to destabilize Europe.
- A humanitarian catastrophe followed: dozens of deaths at the border, and violations of human rights norms.
- The regime’s political goals are to divide the EU and pressure Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.
- The crisis has been used for domestic repression and as a tool to blackmail the EU.
Why this matters to Belarusians:
Such behavior by the regime turns the country into an instrument of blackmail and creates the image of a threat to neighbors. This increases isolation, shuts down possibilities for dialogue with the West, and damages the reputation of the Belarusian people.
- Military Security
What do we observe and highlight?
Belarus has turned into a military outpost of Russia – a platform for hybrid attacks and potential threats to NATO countries.
Key findings:
- Belarus serves as a rear base and logistics hub for Russia’s war against Ukraine, including troop deployment and production of tires and electronics for the Russian army.
- Military infrastructure and the army are fully integrated with Russian structures: a joint military force is being created, Russia controls air defense systems, and has deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus.
- Belarusian intelligence is trained by the FSB; officers are graduates of Russian academies.
- There is a risk that Belarus could be used as a launchpad for attacks on the Baltic states or Poland, including “false flag” operations under the Belarus regime.
- Belarus acts as a sanctions loophole, including for military components.
- The regime does not control its borders or military decisions; key decisions are made in the Kremlin.
Why this matters to Belarusians:
The de facto loss of military sovereignty endangers both the neighboring countries and Belarusians themselves. Belarus could be dragged into war without any say in it, risking lives, the economy, and the country’s future. Only the restoration of control over the army and neutrality can guarantee security for Belarus and the region.
- Youth-Related Security
What do we observe and highlight??
Systemic repression, emigration, and ideological indoctrination of young people have been going on in Belarus.
Key findings:
- Nearly half of all political prisoners are under 35.
- Over 1,600 NGOs have been liquidated, and alternative schools and universities have been shut down.
- Over 300,000 people have left the country, most of them young specialists. The IT sector has been particularly hard-hit.
- Coercive retention policies are in place. Military draft deferrals canceled for students abroad; mandatory work placement for 2–5 years after graduation.
- Education has become a system of ideological control: independent universities closed, mandatory “ideology classes” introduced, and teachers forced to undergo “retraining”.
- Propaganda of militarism and pro-Russian narratives is on the rise, including in schools and state media.
- Exiled youth are seeking education and opportunities in the EU.
Why this matters to Belarusians:
The future of the country depends on its youth. If the current generation either emigrates or is subjected to complete “reprogramming”, Belarus will lose not only specialists but also carriers of European values. Without their involvement, modernization and democratic development are impossible. Supporting young people is an investment in Belarus’ freedom and security.
