Draft for public discussion 

01.11.2023

Summary

The strategy outlines the measures to be taken by democratic forces in Belarus in preparation for a democratic transition, and the directions of key reforms needed during the first six years of the period of transition from authoritarianism to democracy. The strategy considers various scenarios of power transition, all of which require proper preparations: 1) changes resulting from negotiations; 2) changes happening under internal societal pressure; 3) gradual transformation of the regime; 4) changes happening under external pressure.

The strategy assumes that the transition of power begins against the backdrop of constitutional uncertainty (lack of consensus on which version of the Belarusian Constitution is to be considered legitimate: 1994, 1996, 2004, or 2022) and absence of legitimately formed government bodies. Hence, three options for the sequence of a constitutional reform and free elections are proposed.

1) The political force dominating the transition period recognizes one of the versions of the Constitution (1994, 1996, 2004, or 2022) as legitimate and holds elections in accordance with it. The Constitutional reform is carried out by amending the Constitution recognized as legitimate.

2) The Constitutional reform is held before the elections. First, a referendum on the new Constitution is held. Then, the elected authorities are invested with powers specified in the new Constitution.

3) The Elections are held before the constitutional reform. The Declaration of State Sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus is restored as a valid constitutional law; and elections to the Supreme Council of Belarus, as the only representative body of the Belarusian people, are held, with the Chairman of the Supreme Soviet becoming the head of state. The Supreme Council carries out the constitutional reform.

The strategy envisions that the first democratic elections are held without waiting for the scheduled election dates. The preparations for the elections focus on creating the necessary conditions, including stopping repression and releasing political prisoners, restoring the registration of political parties and NGOs, unblocking websites and media publications, reinstating the freedom of peaceful assembly and mass media, forming a Central Election Commission of members trusted by society, and inviting an international observation mission  led by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

During the transition period, a Transitional Government is formed to ensure that state governance bodies function stably and public services remain uninterrupted. A reform of state governance based on democratic principles is initiated.

To maintain legal certainty, laws and regulations in force at the beginning of the transition period remain valid to the extent that they do not contradict the rights and freedoms of citizens. After the adoption of the new Constitution, their validity is contingent on their alignment with the newly adopted Constitution.

To restore confidence in the judiciary, an independent body with the participation of international experts is established to conduct a procedure aimed at verifying judges’ adequacy for their positions based on criteria of competence, professional ethics, and integrity.

Law enforcement agencies are transformed from repressive to democratic institutions that serve the public good, strive to protect human rights, and work to prevent and combat crime and uphold the rule of law. Ministry of Internal Affairs units, such as the GUBAZiK (directorate for combating organized crime) and AMAP (riot police), as well as the KGB, are to be disbanded. Their functions not related to political persecution are to be transferred to existing or newly created specialized bodies.

In foreign policy, the transition period activities focus on bringing the legislation and foreign policy of Belarus in line with the universally recognized principles and norms of international law, attracting international assistance to stabilize the situation in the country, ensuring the country’s security and independence, and implementing the European perspective for Belarus.

The key objective of economic policy during the period of power transit is to ensure (restore) macroeconomic stability, as well as strengthen and develop the country’s economic potential. To achieve this, the following measures are to be implemented.

• Ensuring the swift removal of sanctions against Belarus.
• Creating conditions for the growth of private businesses.
• Granting capital amnesty and implementing tax amnesty.
• Strengthening social assistance and ensuring their targeted delivery.
• Stabilizing the situation of state-owned enterprises and preparing the reform of the state sector.
• Addressing threats to the debt sustainability of state-owned enterprises, partially restructuring their non-performing debts. Supporting banks and non-financial enterprises with liquidity in case of an acute intensification of the debt crisis.
• Normalizing monetary and fiscal policies, providing limited monetary and fiscal incentives as needed.
• Actively establishing mechanisms for economic cooperation with foreign countries and international organizations.
• Ensuring energy security on the national level.
• Increasing the role of civil society, media, and the Belarusian diaspora in the national economy. Forming and strengthening economic confidence.

During the transition period, state programs for national revival are initiated with the aim of developing Belarusian culture. These programs aim to preserve genuine traditions and cultural diversity of the ethnicities long inhabiting the territory of Belarus. National symbols are reintroduced, the use of the Belarusian language is expanded, and the Belarusian history and culture is promoted.

Additionally, within the transition period, a concept for the reform of the education system is developed, and its implementation commences. This involves restoring Belarus’ membership in the Bologna Process and re-establishing broad international cooperation in the fields of research, science, and technology. The primary focus of the education system reform is to shift from approaching individuals as a resource to recognizing them as free individuals and creating conditions for their development.

The draft Strategy of Transition to a New Belarus is available for reading and downloading in:
Belarusian;
Russian.
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