Several years ago, April 2 was declared in Belarus as the “Day of Unity of the Peoples of Belarus and Russia”. Reflecting on this occasion, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Advisor on Education and Science, Pavel Tereshkovich, considers whether it is truly a day of “unity” — or rather of “absorption”:
“Thirty years ago, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed the Treaty on the ‘Union of Belarus and Russia’ with Boris Yeltsin. This happened at a time when most former Soviet republics were trying to move as far away as possible from the ‘big brother’. Lukashenka’s motives were obvious: less than two years earlier, he had quite easily secured the presidency in Belarus — the next step was the Kremlin. Preparations began: intensive meetings with leaders of Russian regions. That treaty was signed for this very purpose, and a year later the Union State was established. Vladimir Putin replaced Yeltsin, but the Union State and the newly created holiday remained.
If Lukashenka’s ambitions are clear, what motivated Yeltsin and his circle? Did they not understand? And in general, why does Russia need Belarus? This cannot be explained by imperial syndrome alone. There is also a rational explanation — something called ‘strategic depth,’ meaning having space to retreat into. For Russia, Belarus is a territory that can be abandoned — temporarily or partially — because it is not truly its own. They do not abandon their own. This was the case in 1812, 1915, and 1941.
Today, this ‘depth’ is more necessary for Russia than ever, which explains the excessive grip. Rossotrudnichestvo — a Russian federal agency for relations with compatriots — operates five so-called ‘Russian Houses’ in Belarus. Typically, no more than two are opened in a single country. The official goal is to promote Russian language and culture. But does Belarus really have such a shortage of the Russian language to justify this scale? Timofey Sergeytsev, an ideologue of the ‘Russian world’, who in 2022 called for killing as many Ukrainians as possible, suggested using Rossotrudnichestvo as an occupation authority in Ukraine. Perhaps that is the real purpose. There is also a network of compatriot organizations, the Russkiy Mir Foundation, the Gorchakov Fund, and others.
During the Perestroika era, a phrase was popular: ‘The main danger of the great friendship of the peoples of the USSR is being suffocated in brotherly embraces’. Today, those ‘embraces’ are represented by the Union State. At first glance, it may seem insignificant — the Union budget for 2026 amounts to 6.3 billion Russian rubles (around €64.7 million). That is roughly the same amount the European Union allocates to Lithuania alone for social housing. But the devil is always in the details, almost invisible to ordinary people. In this case, those details are the Union State ‘roadmaps’, through which Russia is gradually stripping Belarus of its sovereignty.
‘Why focus only on the negative? Look at how much Belarus receives through cheap Russian energy resources’, some might say. Fair enough — over 30 years, this amounts to tens of billions. This is the price paid for ‘strategic depth’. But if something goes wrong, the costs will be incomparably higher.
And finally, about those tens of billions in subsidies. One must have a rare talent to squander them so ineffectively. In terms of GDP per capita (nominal), Belarus ranks among the poorest countries in Europe — on par with Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Moldova — countries that pay world market prices for gas and oil”.
