In an interview with Salidarnasc, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Advisor on Economic Reforms and Vice President of the Association of Belarusian Businesses, Aleś Alachnovič, explained why economists were wrong and why the Belarusian economy did not decline after the war started and sanctions were imposed. He also explained why Belarusians’ income will continue to lag behind other European countries.
📌 “The release of political prisoners proves that not everything is going well in the Belarusian economy. This is a call for bargaining. Lukashenka and the authorities understand how critical and dangerous the economic dependence on a single partner is”.
📌 “Following the domestic political crisis, sanctions, and the departure of hundreds of thousands of people, the potential of the Belarusian economy has shrunk even further. In the coming years, I expect the GDP in Belarus to grow at only 0.5-1% annually”.
📌 “Amid the war, Belarusian enterprises are working for the Russian defense industry. But this is all temporary as Chinese goods will replace Belarusian ones over time. Therefore, if nothing changes politically in Belarus, its economy will continue to fall further behind”.
📌 “In terms of wages, Belarus has already become the poorest country in Europe. People are earning more in all countries, except war-torn Ukraine. In Moldova, the average wage for 2023 turned out to be higher than in Belarus: $680 in Moldova compared to $638 in Belarus”.
📌 “In the coming years, Belarusians may earn a ruble or a penny more than today but their income gap compared to the rest of Europe will only continue to widen”.
