“Dear Daniele,
Dear participants,
Let me thank CeSPI for holding this discussion on Belarus. What the future of Belarus will be, it matters today not only to Belarusians, but for the whole of Europe. Unfortunately, it doesn’t depend only on Belarusians, either.
The situation in our country is described as a “perfect storm”. We face a double crisis. Political and humanitarian one within the country, and the threat of losing our independence to Russia.
Three developments have been very important lately.
- First, Russia’s decision to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. Lukashenka recently confirmed that these are in Belarus already.
- The second is Lukashenka’s invitation of terrorist Wagner mercenaries to Belarus. This is not effective yet, but the preparations are underway. If it happens, it would further undermine Belarusian sovereignty.
- And the third is Lukashenka’s complicity in the abduction of several thousand Ukrainian children to Belarus. This is a clear war crime, which should and will be prosecuted by international justice.
All three events prove Lukashenka’s ever greater dependence on Russia. In the recent PACE declaration it’s called “soft annexation”. After losing legitimacy in 2020, he definitely exchanged Belarus’ sovereignty for Putin’s political, financial and military support.
As the story with the Wagner mutiny shows, Putin uses Lukashenka’s quasi-independence for his own agenda. The Kremlin’s eternal goal is to establish Russian hegemony in Europe.
There is no doubt that Lukashenka won’t control Wagner’s mercenaries, as he won’t control Russian nuclear weapons. His regime is just a tool of Russian imperial policy. Breaking this tool from within would mean a big blow to Russia.
According to recent Surveys, only 20% of Belarusians support the deployment Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. Only 2% support the involvement of Belarus army in the war against Ukraine. But, considering the scale of repression and police terror, it is too dangerous to protest openly.
60 thousand people have passed through prisons since 2020. Today, about 19 people are detained every day. Only last month, more than 530 people have been jailed. What for? Criticizing the regime. Supporting Ukraine. Wearing the Belarusian flag. Sometimes just for speaking Belarusian language.
There are at least fifteen hundred political prisoners. The real number may be from five thousand. The sentences are just insane. Like eight years given to Eduard Babaryka two days ago, as a revenge for being his father’s supporter in the presidential campaign.
However, a “black swan” event, like Prigozhin’s mutiny, could open a window of opportunities for Belarusians. We must not miss it. We have to stay united and ready for it.
I agree that Europe’s future is being decided on Ukrainian battlefields right now. But I also believe that Free Belarus would be the strongest sanction against Putin and a crucial help to Ukraine’s victory.
The fates of Belarus and Ukraine are intertwined. There won’t be free Belarus without free Ukraine, and vice versa. Therefore, we ask our Western allies to increase support for Ukraine, but also for freedom fighters in Belarus.
Belarusians and Ukrainians are fighting today not just for their countries, but for our common values. Fight for democracy is a global one. And we are in this fight together. This fight needs energy, passion, and strong commitment. This fight is hard, and it can not be won alone. It also needs friends and allies who not only believe in freedom but are also ready to invest in it.
We need an orchestrated international effort. Our strategy on Belarus includes four key elements: 1) pressure; 2) assistance; 3) accountability; 4) commitment. Only a combination of these efforts will give the desired effect.
- First, the pressure.
Let’s not have illusions. Dictators can not be appeased or reeducated. Only coordinated pressure can force them to retreat. The West must increase economic and political pressure on Lukashenka’s regime and Russia. Sanctions should be monitored and enforced. We also need to sanction judges, propagandists, and military officials, and key sectors of economy that fuel the regime. Sanctions on Russia must be imposed not only for invading Ukraine, but also for undermining Belarus sovereignty. It must send a strong signal that such attempts won’t be tolerated.
- Second: accountability.
Lukashenka must be brought to tribunal alongside Putin and all their cronies. Lukashenka has a long record of crimes, including crimes against humanity, crimes of aggression, extrajudicial killings, and hijacking a flight. Now there is evidence that Lukashenka took part in the deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus. We must deprive Lukashenka of immunity and designate his regime as criminal.
The West should stop pretending that Lukashenka is a president. He is not. Our language shapes reality: so let’s stop calling him president. He is a criminal who seized power.
Instead, Belarusian democratic forces should be recognized as legitimate representatives of the Belarusian people. And they should be treated accordingly on the international level.
- Third, assistance.
It is vital to support Belarusian civil society, media, democratic forces, and Belarusians in exile. Only a vibrant and well-informed society will be able to confront the tyranny of Lukashenka.
We are strengthening our political structures, the United Transitional Cabinet and the Coordination Council. We are working on a common plan of action. We are in contact with people on the ground and the resistance network. .
- Fourth: commitment.
We need the European perspective for Belarus. We have to return Belarus to Europe and Europe — to Belarus. Belarusians must feel that they are expected in Europe and in international organizations. They need to see the alternative to Russian imperialism.
The strategic importance of Belarus for Europe’s security must be recognized by our Western partners. The withdrawal of all Russian troops and nuclear weapons from Belarus must be part of the post-war arrangement between Ukraine and Russia.
The non-nuclear status, neutrality and independence of Belarus are not negotiable. Only the free independent Belarus will be a cornerstone of the region’s stability and Europe’s safety.
All the agreements between Lukashenka and Russia must be revised. Belarus should leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, so it won’t be allied with the aggressor. We will seek to integrate European structures and be trustworthy partners to our European neighbors. Free and democratic Belarus will be a donor of peace, not a constant threat.
I firmly believe that this day will come. The two usurpers and their cronies can’t hold back history. In 2020, Belarusians made a clear choice for democratic European future. We chose the road from tyranny to freedom.
It may be a long path, but it’s the only right one. Let’s walk this path together.
Thank you.”
